More signs that Dec not so hot turned up in quick update from Morgan Stanley’s Dara Mohsenian based on Nielsen all-outlet plus convenience data thru 12/17. First, total beer slipped into negative territory for 4 wks, $$ sales down just slightly, even tho it’s still up over 2% for 12 wks. Trends of couple of largest craft brand families headed in wrong direction too. Sam Adams brands had been doing a bit better: -6.4% for 12 wks compared to -7.1% for 52 wks thru 12/17. But 4-wk decline actually slightly steeper than 52-wks, -7.4%. So now Boston Beer’s oldest brand family just 40% of the co’s brand mix in Nielsen data (tho Sam a much bigger part of Boston’s on-premise biz still). Note very similar pattern for Blue Moon during same periods. Short- and long-term trends almost identical -2.8% and -2.7% for 4- and 52-wks, respectively, while 12-wk trend over a point better. At same time, Ballast Point still strong and up double-digits for all periods. But it’s not maintaining massive 77% gain for 52 wks. For 12 wks, Ballast up about 43% in off-premise scans, +27% for 4 wks.
MORE TUFF BEER TRENDS IN EARLY DEC INCLUDE STEEPER SAM ADAMS DECLINE, SLOWING BALLAST POINT
