Higher-than-expected Internet advertising business in 2017 will more than compensate for TV ad declines — including all platforms, broadcast, cable, and TV stations. Gains will help U.S. advertising improve modestly this year.
MoffettNathanson Research now projects that overall U.S. advertising in 2017 will rise 3.4%, hitting $197.3 billion. Previously, it had estimated a 2.7% gain.
New projections are that total Internet advertising — search, video, display, mobile and social — will grow 18.5% to $85.9 billion. An earlier effort forecast a 16.3% hike. Total TV advertising will be down 4.1% to $76.4 billion.
Among the big TV segment losers, TV stations will be down 8.2% to $20.8 billion. The dive is largely expected, coming against high dollar gains in 2016 from political and Olympic advertising. Broadcast networks look to drop 3.7% in 2017 to $15.7 billion, while local cable is down 6.1% to $5.1 billion.
Ad-supported cable networks, the best-performing TV platforms, will slip just 1.5% to $30.3 billion.
Other media is also seeing declines. Radio will be down 1.5% to $17.5 billion; newspapers are off 8% to $15.2 billion; magazines slipping 1% to $12.4 billion. Outdoor will have a slight rise: 1% to $7.6 billion.
MoffettNathanson estimates that “traditional” media — TV, radio, magazines, outdoor, and print — will drop 5.9% to $111.4 billion in 2017. This will ease somewhat next year; projections call for a 1.5% decline in 2018.
by Wayne Friedman
