(Photo: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)
Three years later, every human being there and perhaps millions who weren’t remember the roar. It started to build from a nervous silence about 40 seconds before the finish of the Belmont Stakes, the turquoise and yellow silks of American Pharoah pulling clear from a pack of horses that were about to chase history for the final quarter-mile.
The decibels rose with each stride as horse racing’s dispiriting, decades-long quest for another Triple Crown winner was about to be over, the grandstand of venerable Belmont Park shaking with noise as track announcer Larry Collmus’ voice rose to declare, “The 37 year wait is over! American Pharoah is finally the one!”
For 10 solid minutes, the capacity crowd of 90,000 who witnessed history’s 12th Triple Crown winner people kept clapping, screaming and weeping, a moment the sport had long awaited and arguably needed.
There will be a ton of attention on this year’s Belmont Stakes as Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Justify will look to capture a Triple Crown. USA TODAY Sports
But in the long run, that’s exactly what it was: A moment, not the kind of transformative event that could resuscitate an industry struggling for a generation to capture the general public’s interest, not to mention its entertainment dollars.
“The long-term impact of a Triple Crown winner is always hard to gauge,” said Alex Waldrop, president of the National Thoroughbred Racing Association. “Our big events are as strong as ever, and they were certainly strengthened by what American Pharoah accomplished. Whether it affects the day-to-day racing business at the average track across the country, probably not that much. And anyone who expected he would was probably being overly optimistic.”
As undefeated Justify attempts to become the second Triple Crown winner in the last four years Saturday, horse racing finds itself intertwined with a set of circumstances that feel unique, with American Pharoah’s triumph serving as an inflection point in the history of the sport.
While American Pharoah was a sensation, attracting huge crowds and media coverage the rest of the year when he ran at Monmouth Park, Saratoga and in the Breeders’ Cup Classic before he retired, it was a short-lived publicity boost.
Though his emergence was partly responsible for a 1.18% increase in the total amount of money bet on Thoroughbreds in the U.S. in 2015 (despite more than 2,300 fewer races), it is essentially flat since then.
No longer do fans and industry insiders talk about how badly horse racing needs a Triple Crown, a sentiment reflected in the lack of hype surrounding Justify’s bid compared to prior cycles of hype around horses like Smarty Jones, Big Brown and California Chrome. Instead, there’s more conversation about how legalized sports wagering might be incorporated into racetracks as a way to generate revenue and increase attendance.
Moreover, people seem to better understand what was always true: Horse racing’s appeal doesn’t rest with one fleeting superstar, nor were its problems going to be solved by a colt who came and went from America’s radar in the span of six months.
“People will watch when there’s a Triple Crown attempt,” said longtime track announcer Tom Durkin, who called nine unsuccessful tries before retiring from his duties at Belmont the year before American Pharoah. “It creeps into the general sports consciousness. But I don’t think it has had any concrete evidence of improved business, handle, television ratings and the various metrics that you come up with. It doesn’t seem to have made any difference.”
But that doesn’t mean American Pharoah’s accomplishment was in vain for an industry that desperately wanted a modern-day hero to put alongside the fading memories of Secretariat, Seattle Slew and Affirmed.
In fact, post-American Pharoah era has helped crystallize what people seem to want out of horse racing: A high-end, boutique-type event where fans are willing to spend big on a full sensory experience that includes high quality food, drink, music and top-class racing. Being part of that atmosphere is why the Kentucky Derby and Preakness attract more than 135,000 people year after year, hardly the hallmarks of a so-called dying sport.
And that model doesn’t just apply to the Triple Crown, but also shorter seasonal meets like Keeneland in Lexington, Ky., Saratoga in upstate New York and Del Mar outside of San Diego, all of which still bring in good crowds. High-profile, successful new events like the Pegasus World Cup at South Florida’s Gulfstream Park have filled holes on the racing calendar in January by creating another tentpole day for the best horses in the world, which in turn draws significant betting interest.
Saturday alone, there will be five Grade 1 races before the Belmont Stakes, giving fans exposure to high-class horses who will be running in televised races all the way up to the Breeders’ Cup in the fall.
“With the big events being such a big deal, people are starting to follow more of the players in the game,” said trainer Dale Romans. “They keep up with certain stables and horses the rest of the year like (rooting for) one NASCAR team over another.
“I think a lot of people were down on the sport and were kind of naysayers about it, but the sport is in good position to move forward. I’ve seen a lot of interest in the game, and it’s a younger crowd. The game is tailor-made for the Internet and a lot of younger people are finding it there. Once you start getting into it, you’re going to love it.”
There’s a downside, of course, to the current trends. Fewer horses, fewer races, racetracks shutting down. But as the small-time operators struggle, the top end of the sport seems as healthy as ever.
In fact, perhaps the biggest long-term impact of American Pharoah’s Triple Crown has come on the ownership side where wealthy individuals and large-scale partnerships have made a head-first dive into the business, spending millions on high quality horseflesh at auctions in the United States.
Two of those notable figures — hedge fund executive Sol Kumin and the China Horse Club — bought pieces of Justify prior to the Kentucky Derby. Though the actual names behind the China Horse Club largely remain a mystery, its chairman Teo Ah Khing mentioned that 16 members who attended Derby were all “captains of industry” in China.
Phoenix Thoroughbreds, another well-heeled conglomerate with financial backing from Dubai and Europe, just got up and running last year and started winning big races almost right away. It will have Gronkowski in the Belmont Stakes.
“The impact (of American Pharoah) was we had a lot of new people get involved, buying horses and prices have gone up,” said Bob Baffert, who trained both American Pharoah and Justify. “Everybody wants quality. You’re getting a lot of money from the Middle East, Europe, China. It’s really boosted the business at the top level. Everybody wants to play at that top level.”
While foreign money isn’t necessarily new in American horse racing, nor are large ownership syndicates, what has changed is the focus of those groups. These newcomers aren’t looking to be the next Claiborne Farm where they collect broodmares and establish their own bloodlines and become part of the fabric of the sport. They’re looking to buy a Kentucky Derby winner.
“For these new owners, there’s some that are interested in winning other big races whether it’s on grass or older horses, but there’s just so much put into the Derby and Triple Crown,” said Ray Paulick, whose Web site PaulickReport.com ranks among the most influential publications in the horse racing industry.
“There’s very few people who really invest in horses to make money because as far as an owner is concerned it’s very difficult. You get into it to enjoy the sport and the thrills and possibility of winning a big race like the Kentucky Derby or Breeders’ Cup.”
But even if the expectations for some kind of major shift in horse racing’s popularity are no longer tied to the myth of a Triple Crown savior, there’s still a hope that Justify and the relentless promotion from NBC on its other events like the Stanley Cup playoffs and French Open will draw new eyeballs, new interest and perhaps new dollars.
Win or lose, though, Justify’s performance won’t change the fundamentals of the industry, and it certainly won’t save horse racing. But with another 80,000-90,000 people expected at Belmont just to watch him try to win the Triple Crown, maybe it didn’t need to be saved in the first place.
