Vicky Jarrett//Managing Editor
Source: www.furnituretoday.com, May 2023
HIGH POINT — With economic conditions uncertain at best and consumer demand for furniture increasing ever so slowly, mattress shipments in both units and value are expected to decrease in 2023 before making a turn for the better in 2024, according to the latest forecast from the International Sleep Products Assn.
Forecasting for the full U.S. mattress industry through December 2024, ISPA first noted that the quantity of total mattress shipments (U.S.-produced and imported mattresses and stationary foundations) was down 14.7%, at 43.9 million units, and the value down by 10.7%, at $10.565 billion, in 2022 as compared with 2021.
For 2023, the ISPA Forecast Panel predicts a 6% decrease in units, to 40.6 million, and a 3% decrease in the value of shipments, to $10.248 billion, compared with last year, which it says reflects the slowing growth in real disposable personal income and the continued contraction in the housing market.
But looking further ahead into 2024, the expectation shifts as mortgage rates are projected to ease up and the housing sector begins to recover.
The panel projects both total unit shipments and value of shipments to rise compared with this year, at 3% (41.8 million) and 5% ($10.76 billion), respectively.
The average unit price (AUP) is expected to continue to moderate. AUP for total mattress shipments was up 23.4% in 2021 and 4.7% in 2022; the ISPA panel projects AUP to increase at a slower rate of 3.2% this year, and slow even further to 1.9% for 2024.
In his comments accompanying the ISPA forecast, industry analyst Jerry Epperson, managing director with Mann, Armistead & Epperson, gave three reasons that he expects a gradual increase in mattress sales later this year: the Federal Reserve is nearing its last 0.25% increase soon, inflation has slowed, and the past couple of months have seen positive results in existing home and new home sales.
“Will these factors boost mattress sales instantly?” Epperson wrote. “No, but they parallel our new forecast: a decline of 6% in units and 3% in dollars this year,2023; and gains of 3% in units and 5% in 2024.”
