Source: www.insideradio.com, August 2024

While the Democratic National Convention in Chicago takes center stage this week, there may be a slowdown on ads from Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign and the party’s down-ballot candidates. But that won’t last long, says Steve Passwaiter, President of political advisory firm Silver Oak Political.

“Harris has little spending booked after this week’s [DNC], but that will change quickly, especially during the critical post-Labor Day period,” Passwaiter writes in Ad Age, noting that Democratic spending on radio, TV and digital ads is approaching $2 billion for 2024-to-date, with a $200 million lead over Republicans in spending across all races — including a $55 million lead in the presidential race.

Since Jan. 1, Democrats have spent $450 million on the presidential race, with $40 million by Harris since Biden stepped down, taking into account all bookings through Nov. 5. “Since replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee, the amount of money pouring into Harris’ campaign is staggering,” Passwaiter says. “Harris will also likely get the $90 million collected by the Biden-Harris campaign.”

While this is fine and good for Harris, it may not bode well for the Democrats’ Senate and House races, according to Passwaiter. “One of the challenges for down-ballot candidates is heightened interest in the presidential race,” he says. “These developments make it more difficult for candidates in other races to get their message to voters. The way to break through the noise, some strategists think, is to focus on local or statewide issues.”

It’s not like the money isn’t there for these candidates. To date, Democrats have spent $700 million in U.S. Senate races vs. the Republicans’ $530 million, with significant outlays on Senate races in Ohio (more than $100 million), Pennsylvania ($55 million), Nevada ($41 million), Montana ($32 million), Arizona ($25 million), Michigan ($25 million) and Wisconsin ($20 million).

As to House candidates, the Democrats’ lead is closer, with $450 million to the Republicans’ $410 million, with big spends on races in California and New York. There are also two key Gubernatorial elections, in North Carolina and New Hampshire, where the former’s Democratic candidate, Attorney General Josh Stein, has spent close to $35 million, while both candidates in the latter state’s upcoming primary have spent $7 million.