Executive Summary:
The U.S. retail sector displayed resilience throughout 2024, driven by robust e-commerce growth and steady consumer spending, despite economic uncertainties such as inflation, high interest rates, and rising credit card debt. The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Census Bureau reported monthly retail sales across core segments (excluding food, auto, and fuel), showing year-over-year growth across most categories.
Key findings include:
- E-commerce Growth: Online sales consistently outperformed other segments, with double-digit growth during key months like December (+10.2%) and April (+12.8%).
- Holiday Season Strength: The 2024 holiday shopping season exceeded expectations, bolstered by early seasonal promotions, credit-based purchasing, and consumer resilience.
- Segment Performance: Apparel (+4.5%), home goods (+7.7%), and electronics (+5.4%) saw notable gains during the year, while department stores and sporting goods faced challenges.
- Consumer Behavior: Shoppers leaned toward value-oriented purchases, utilizing discounts, “buy now, pay later” options, and off-price retailers to stretch their budgets.
- Economic Outlook: High consumer debt and cautious spending habits were balanced by stable employment, wage growth, and moderating inflation. However, analysts predict a slower retail growth trajectory in 2025, with concerns about reduced discretionary spending and margin pressures from promotional pricing.
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